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**The following is a sample from our Book, Turnover Troubles, for the full version visit our PUBLICATIONS page.**
One of the most accurate statements we will make is that when it comes to football the team with the fewest turnovers generally wins the game.
We would state that more than any other sport, football is impacted the most by turnovers.
Reasons for this are the fewer number of possessions in a football game as opposed to say at-bats in a baseball game or possessions in a basketball game.
Also, in baseball for example, a simple error in the field can be corrected later that same inning through a double play, fielder’s choice or some other mechanism.
in football the impact of the turnover is multiplied because not only does committing a turnover cost your team to score, sometimes it leads directly to the opponent scoring such as in the infamous Pick-Six or a fumble recovery “Scoop and Score”
Many times as a bettor, a side is so obvious that you cannot avoid the pick. You then sit there and watch the team that you bet on commit turnover after turnover to lose the damn bet.
Take a look at these numbers to see how significant turnovers are to the outcome of the game. We knew that turnovers were significant but the numbers here really opened our eyes:
For a team with a 1 Turnover edge in the Turnover Margin - they win 70% of the time For a team with a 2 Turnover edge in the Turnover Margin - they win 84% of the time
And, for the ultimate gut punch, if a team wants to find a way to lose a game, then they should lose the Turnover Margin by 3+turnovers. They LOSE 91% of the time.
DAMN!
In this year’s AFC Championship game, we see a major example of how turnovers can completely turn a game around.
Chiefs fans will not want to hear this, but in our opinion the only reason that they won the AFC Championship game over the Ravens was because they won the turnover battle 3-0.
An early Ravens fumble inside their own territory, should have led to an easy Chiefs field goal. Instead, the Ravens defense stopped the Chiefs from converting on a fourth down run.
To us, the key play of the game was when Zay Flowers had the ball and was about to score when he dove for the goal line and fumbled the ball through the end zone for a touchback.
Now, initially we were blaming Flowers for this play but in truth it was an unbelievable play by the defense to cause the fumble and save the touchdown.
All in all, the Ravens outgained the defending champion Chiefs, and the defense actually SHUT OUT Mahomes and that powerful offense in the second half.
Now, going into that game if we had told you that the Ravens would have shut out the Chiefs in the second half, tell me what team would you have been betting on ???
But, turnovers made the difference. The likelihood of a team winning the game and losing the turnover battle by 3 is 9%.
Read that number again NINE Freaking percent.
Basically, it is impossible to win a game if a team loses the turnover margin by 3 as the Ravens did.
The Ravens could have survived a -1 turnover margin, but a 3 turnover difference against a great team, is simply not something that a team can overcome.
THE WORST TURNOVER THERE IS: THE IMPACT OF THE DREADED PICK-SIX:
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In the 2023 season, Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland set the NFL record with 5 pick-sixes in a season. This is a key factor in the Cowboys fantastic season in 2023.
But in many seasons, the dreaded Pick Six can effectively end a season.
Let' s look at a few key moments that turned around or ended a team' s season:
SUPER BOWL XLIV – COLTS -- SAINTS
Trailing by 7 points with less than 2 minutes to go, Peyton Manning leads the Colts down the field with all of the appearance of another Peyton Manning magical moment to tie the game up.
Instead, on a curl route, the receiver cut off his route and Saints’ cornerback Tracy Porter jumped the route and intercepted the ball to take it to the house for the game-sealing play as the Saints won the game and the Super Bowl 31-17
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SUPER BOWL XLIII: CARDINALS Vs. STEELERS
Kurt Warner should have been the first QB to win Super Bowls with two different teams, but fate had different plans.
First and Goal from the 2-yard line, trailing the Steelers 10-7 and only 18 seconds remain in the half. Neither team had any time outs remaining, so this must be why the Cardinals felt compelled to pass here they shouldn' t have.
A late blitz put Warner on his heels causing him to throw sooner than he wanted directly into LB James Harrison' who proceeds to run the length of the field (with no time outs) to score the touchdown and put the Steelers up 17-7 en route to another Super Bowl victory.
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO A PICK-SIX:
Because this is one of the most significant and impactful plays in football, we should look at the factors that contribute to the Pick Six.
First, the disclaimer that we are not suggesting that we can perfectly predict an interception, much less that the interception will be returned for a touchdown.
Instead we look at some factors on the offense, but more importantly on the defensive side, that would make the conditions very favorable for an interception to occur.
First, let' s discuss our overall strategy for using this turnover information as a whole, and then we will get into the 4 key factors influencing interceptions
THE 4 KEY FACTORS INFLUENCING INTERCEPTIONS
There are four factors which we have identified that consistently factor into more interceptions and sometimes quarterback fumbles also.
Rookie Quarterbacks/Gunslingers
Strong Pass Rush
Shutdown Cornerback
QB Interception Ratio
| FOOTBALL BETTING X-FACTORS | THE TURNOVER MATRIX | HOW THE NFL LINES ARE CREATED |
| UNDERSTANDING NFL TOTALS | UNDERDOG CORNER | WHATS THE GAME SET-UP? |
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