| FOOTBALL BETTING X-FACTORS | THE TURNOVER MATRIX | HOW THE NFL LINES ARE CREATED |
| UNDERSTANDING NFL TOTALS | UNDERDOG CORNER | WHATS THE GAME SET-UP? |
|
One reason that we prefer the NFL to College Football is that there is such balance and parity across the league.
Sure, maybe only 4-5 NFL teams have a realistic chance of winning a championship on any given year. But from week to week, almost every NFL team could possibly beat their supposedly " superior" opponent.
In fact, the 2023 NFL season started that way with the Lions as 7 point Dogs going in to Kansas City and upsetting the defending champions.
Remember that the Betting Public Loves FAVORITES
First, a little bit of full disclosure. Way back in our first several years of picking games and handicapping, we were very biased towards the favorites.
Teams like the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams teams that would just light up the scoreboard and the Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts teams that set all types of scoring records.
Many times, this would pay off, but as we soon learned the hard way many times the line was over-inflated and those unloved and disrespected underdogs would actually show up to play the game and put up quite the fight.
This taught us a valuable level about talent and parity in Pro Football, and also in many of the top College football conferences such as the SEC.
In regards to Underdogs, it is very easy to forget about the other team in a matchup, even if that team appears to be inferior on paper.
As we have already noted, these games are not played in a simulator or on paper. Many times a team is only really perceived to be inferior due to maybe a slow start, a slump, or some damn bad luck.
A few years ago, we had a running debate with some co-workers about football. The question was:
“Could the best college team beat the worst Pro team?”
The debate was intense, with great points made by both sides, but ultimately the conclusion was made that the best college team could not beat the worst Pro team.
The point here is that despite records, perceptions or maybe a run of bad luck there are truly no “easy-win” teams in the NFL.
All of the teams in the NFL are capable of putting up a great showing on any given day, and surprised both their opponents and the betting public as well.
Think about the advantages provided when taking an Underdog wager position. Immediately you are provided two possible ways to win the wager.
First, the most obvious, if your team wins the game outright, you win the wager. Secondly, with the benefit of the point spread, you can win if your team loses by less than the public believes that they will lose by.
This comes in very handy in scenarios in which a line may be inefficient, additional points could be had on a side that you liked anyway. With these two possible ways to win, if followed strictly, following underdogs can be very profitable over an entire season.
Let’s look back to the Super Bowl featuring Carolina vs. Denver. Carolina and MVP Cam Newton were the darlings of the NFL.
They had been blowing teams out, and scoring at will, clearly no way an aging and injured Peyton Manning could keep up with the Panthers powerful offense.
The line opened at Carolina+6 a number far higher than we expected. We had the game at a virtual tie, thanks to the powerful pass rush of Denver’s defense.
As it would happen, Carolina played one of their weaker games of the year, Von Miller was an absolute beast, and Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips coached their way to a Super Bowl Championship.
And in another good Super Bowl example, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs were rolling to face an aging Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the Bucs were playing the Super Bowl in their home stadium (the first time that has ever happened). But even more unlucky for the Chiefs, they were missing 2 key members on that offensive line.
We all know how great Patrick Mahomes is, but with defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ players chasing Mahomes all over the field, the Bucs won in a blowout and we won yet another underdog Super Bowl play.
So, now with all of this talk of parity and whatnot, are we suggesting that all positions should be Underdog plays?
No, not at all.
|
|
|
|
There is no way that we would ever suggest that all plays should be on the Dog side. It all comes down to the best possible value
For an underdog position we actually like two types of setups: the Actual game line and the money line.
Actual Game Line (Point Spread):
By actual game line, we are referring to the base point spread that we all know about.
For taking underdog positions on point spreads the following are 4 factors are we love for underdog positions:
Home Underdogs
Division Rival
Line of 10+points
Team coming off of a tough defeat
Even if a team is struggling during the season, they still expect to win most of their home games.
To be an underdog at home has got to be perceived as a major insult.
With this perceived slight, a team will prepare hard that week and be ready for a bounceback game.
More often than not, this team will put up a gret performance.
Look at team statistics for multiple seasons, and there is an obvious pattern between road and home performance.
Also look for a home-field edge that might be combined with another supporting factor or two.
If you have read our volume " How the NFL Line is Created" we discuss how home field advantage is variable not consistent.
In this case, as with a great deal of our rules, statistics can really be your friend.
You might be surprised to know how different teams can be at home as opposed to on the road.
A defensive example from 2023 would be the Cleveland Browns who only allowed 14 PPG at home but 31 PPG on the road.
For the 2023 season, the Dallas Cowboys had almost a ten-point difference in their road and home games.
It was as if they were two different teams, as they played average to above average football on the road but played like champions at home.
A team like this would rarely be a home underdog, but there are several other teams that may have struggled on the road but respond quite aggressively to defending their home turf.
When taking a home underdog we love it if there is a combination with a secondary factor especially this next topic.
Earlier, we mentioned that motivation is a key factor in leading to an inspired underdog performance.
A second factor in an underdog’s success is knowledge of an opponent.
Think about the difference in knowledge playing a team twice per season as opposed to a team that you play once every few years.
With a division rival, not only do teams play them twice each season, sometimes a team’s entire roster is built with a divisional opponent in mind.
In recent seasons, think about the intense division rivalries between Seattle-San Francisco, Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and Buffalo-Miami.
Many of these matchups have led to incredible playoff rematches.
So, it stands to reason that by preparing, planning and scouting these division rivals, they each have an advantage over each other.
This is true, but the edge must go to the Underdog on this point.
The advantage of a team with knowledge over the other will go to the team whose offense is less explosive.
With the rules that we have provided above, along with our other 4 rules for Winning Football Betting, we are confident that you can beat the books and have a great season.
Look out for our other releases in which we discuss the other rules including:
Rule 2: The Trouble with Turnovers
Rule 3: X-Factors (Intangibles)
Rule 4: Primary Offense (Yardage Stats)
Rule 5: What's the Game Setup (Matchup)
Copyright Spirit Sports Consultants 2024
Note that the following is for entertainment purposes only. This website does not encourage illegal gambling
