Welcome to our Winning Football Betting Series main page
On this page, we have provided a sample from one of our books: HOW THE NFL LINES ARE CREATED
We invite you to read and see what you think about our approach to the NFL Lines
On the side menu we have links to other book samples, so please feel free to look at those also
As the season approaches, we will add additional titles and videos to help you learn more about the NFL
The following is a sample from our Book, HOW THE NFL LINES ARE CREATED.
The PDF Version is also available under the PUBLICATIONS menu in our WINNING FOOTBALL BETTING series
The NFL line creation is farily straightforward, and within this book we will explain this to you but also give you some tips and tricks how to look for line value and get some advantages in your position
We have far more information on this in another publication, but this is the basic formula that the Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks use, which provides some opportunities if you know how to spot them:
THE NFL BASE FORMULA EXPLAINED
There are two major components in the formula for the NFL line. The first is a subjective impression of a team's strength and the sportsbooks' belief in how this team will be valued by the betting public. The second is a simple formula based up on averages that we have backtested and used for over 15 years.
Opening NFL Line – Basic Calculation used to set opening line
So, as the table above indicates, to calculate the expected line, we simply take the average of each team’s average points scored with their opponent’s average points allowed and this forms the base numbers.
The second part of the formula is more subjective, we have determined a 4-point average advantage for home field. There are adjustments to this numbers both up and down based upon X-Factors such as division rivalry, time zones etc.
For now, just use the 4-point home-field advantage, and we will discuss the granular home-field calculation in another future volume and on our web site.
There you have it, the formula used when calculating the opening line for a typical football game. Painfully simple, but not at always accurate, and that’s when we find opportunities.
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| TEAM | OFFENSE SCORED | DEFENSE ALLOWED | RUSH OFFENSE | PASS OFFENSE | RUSH DEFENSE | PASS DEFENSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIONS |
27 |
23 |
136 |
259 |
88 |
247 |
49ERS |
29 |
18 |
140 |
258 |
90 |
214 |
In the table above, we have the Lions and 49ers scored and allowed numbers.
We then take the average of each offense vs each defense to get the raw number for the forecasted score. Then, we round the numbers and apply the home field advantage calculation.
We take the Lions scored plus 49ers allowed and average the two. Then, we do the same for the 49ers offense.
LIONS = 27 scored + 49ers Allowed 18 = (45/2) = 22.5
49ERS = 29 scored + DET Allowed 23 = (51/2) = 25.5
We then take these raw decimal numbers and go ahead and round them. For totals purposes strongly consider whether these numbers should be rounded up or down, as it can make a big difference. But for calculating the sides line we simply round both of these numbers UP.
This leaves us with the following raw score projection before we apply the home field adjustment
SF 26-DET 23
The topic of home field advantage is definitely one for debate. We are of the opinion that it simply does not matter anymore like it used to. The number IS still used tin the calculation of the betting line so we still need to pay attention to it.
The number on both sides are then adjusted to account for a 4 point home field advantage towards the home team (obviously)
As we stated earlier, home field advantage is a range that starts with 4 and can be adjusted up or down based on situational matchups.
For this game, the weather forecast was sunny and no wind which was not impactful for an indoor team.
But, travel to the west coast had us keep this as a 4 POINT home field edge.
We have another book in which we discuss home-field variance so we recommend that you look at that or visit our site. For this calculation, however, we end up with a forecasted score of SF 28-21.
DETROIT = 22.5 – 2 = 20.5 = 21
SAN FRANCISCO = 25.5 + 2 = 28
Our final score projection for this game now becomes:
49ERS 28 LIONS 21
Next, let's compare this to what the opening line was for the game.
So, based upon the preceding calculation, the 49ers are forecasted by this formula to be favored by 7 points.
What are the actual game odds?
The low line is 7.0 and the high line is 7.5, falling right in line with our Vegas line forecast calculation.
So, what happens after these initial lines are set would be line movement based upon the volume of bets on each side.
In the example above, these numbers were recorded on a Thursday and reflect the line moving up from 7.0 when the line opened to 7.5 at this point
This is the basic calculation that is used in games which we have studied and reverse-engineered for decades.
We use this number as only a starting point in our game handicapping/predictions, but understanding these numbers is a very important part of successful NFL betting.
These calculations are set to anticipate what the OPENING line will be. It is very important that one understands that the line will then move based upon the percentage of MONEY bet on each side. The line should not move based on number of bets but rather the amount of money bet on each side.
Quick Quiz: How should the line move?
Don't worry, this is not a real quiz and there are no wrong answers but we just want to analyze a "what-if" type scenario and see what your thought are:
Our example game is a playoff matchup but let's just for a moment speculate that this is actually a regular season matchup on Week 10.
In this made-up scenario for a Week 10 matchup, the Lions in their Week 9 game crushed their opponent by a score of 42-3. (Going for the most extreme score that we could think of).
Then, on the other side, the 49ers lost at home 28-14 to a perceived inferior opponent.
We have already done the line calcuation and determined that the fair line value for this game should be around 6.5 to 7.0. But, based upon these recent game performances how to you think that the opening line will be set?
Line should stay the same - 49ERS -7.0
Line should drop slightly - 49ERS -6.5
Line should drop significantly - 49ERS -5.5
Quiz Answer: How should the line move?
The line should definitely move at least a little bit based upon the recent game performances.
The sportsbooks know all too well how people are affected by the most recent games, and especially if these games were a prime time or a featured matchup such as the Game of the Week in the 4PM Eastern time slot.
Therefore, A is not the correct answer as the line should move some and not stay at the 7.0 line that we calculated before the Week 9 games.
We also say that C is incorrect because even though the 49ers lost badly and the Lions won impressively, a line movement of 1.5-2 points would be excessive.
Another factor we need to mention is overall team reputation. In this case, the 49ers are a historically successful team in the middle of a very strong season.
On the other hand, the Lions reputation is...well the Lions. We can say that... we travel with Lions fans for Lions' road trips.
By process of elimination, this leaves B as the correct answer. We feel that the line will move slightly towards the Lions. We would set the line at SF -6.5 and no lower than SF -6.0.
Any lower than this would mean significant value on the side of the 49ers.
This is the end of our free sample, for the full version visit our PUBLICATIONS page or become a member and receive all of our EBOOKS and our Weekly Newsletter for free
| FOOTBALL BETTING X-FACTORS | THE TURNOVER MATRIX | HOW THE NFL LINES ARE CREATED |
| UNDERSTANDING NFL TOTALS | UNDERDOG CORNER | WHATS THE GAME SET-UP? |
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