Projection Board

Close games: ≤ 4 pts Close regression: 50% SOS weight: 0.50 TO value (evaluator): 4.0 pts
Team Tier 2026 Proj 2025 Pyth Roster SOS SOS Adj ≤4 G ≤4 W Close Adj TO Adj Raw Proj

Box Score Evaluator

Purpose: Next-week setup Concept: Unlucky loss vs earned loss

Inputs

SSC rule of thumb: losses with TO margin ≤ -2 often qualify as unlucky losses, especially if yardage was competitive.

Output

Enter a box score and click Evaluate.
Score Margin—
Turnover-Adjusted Margin—
Yardage Context—
Classification—
Default classification logic:
  • Unlucky loss: lost + TO margin ≤ -2, and TO-adjusted margin within one score OR yardage not awful.
  • Earned loss: lost by ~14+ and thoroughly outgained.
  • TO-aided win: won with TO margin ≥ +2 (sell-high flag).

Model Notes

This board is designed as a 2026 baseline. It answers: “What should this team’s win level look like after removing 2025 noise?”

  • Pythagorean Wins anchor to scoring margin reality.
  • Close Games (≤4) are treated as high volatility and regressed toward .500.
  • SOS normalizes “easy schedule” records (weak SOS lowers baseline).
  • Turnover regression can be added later (paste TO margin and update TO Adj / Raw Proj).